Welcome back to another edition of the Saturday Guest Writer series! Today, PurpleDiomond stops by and gives us a bit of insight of what we expected in the 21st century vs. 21st centruy reality!

Lets get to it

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“By the age of 21 you will reach the moon” and other predictions…


We are already 6 years into the 21st century – this has been a magical number for the science fiction writers and other dreamers. How did the predictions of the past miss or hit the reality of the 21st century?


The title of this essay is actually from the wrapper of a Bazooka Joe bubble gum. I have seen this promise of a magical future and it was the first prediction of the future that I remember. As surprising as it may seem, this prediction did not come trueÂ…


But what about other predictions of somewhat more realistic nature?

• The end of the world: I was doing some research before I started writing this piece and I have found that there were so many predictions that the world would end on the year 2000 that I stopped counting after 20. Predictions of the world ending during the 20th century totaled in hundreds. WeÂ’re still here and the world has not ended.
• Flying cars and other forms of transportation: one of the biggest disappointments in my opinion. There are no substantial differences between a Ford model T and the latest and greatest. Most cars still use an internal combustion engine (which has become more efficient but still works pretty much the same way) and the few hybrid cars are not really that impressive as far as the actual benefit from adding the electrical motor/dynamo. BTW according to the “Real Facts” under the cap of a Snapple bottle about a 1/3 of the cars in NYC at the beginning of the 20th century were electricÂ…
• Robotics and Artificial intelligence: The movie 2001: A space odyssey, the Robotics series by Isaac Asimov and many others have predicted that by the 21st century we will have computers that can think like humans and robotic servants that will do the work instead of humans. The most common robotic device that has entered households is the Roomba vaccum cleaner. There are more advanced robots out there (for example the Asimo by Honda) but nothing even comes close to the technical level of the predictions. Deep Blue is able to play chess on the same level as humans, voice recognition is very common and is relatively accurate but nothing has come close to passing the Turing test.
• Computerized implants and other input devices: we still use mice and keyboards for entering input and use monitors and paper for output. The paperless office has become a joke – the usage of paper has grown significantly since computers were introduced into offices. The GUI is celebrating itÂ’s 38th birthday this year. And Microsoft wants us to be excited about a new version of windows? The fact that I need to type this article on something that is based on the user interface of a typewriter makes me kind of bummed. HereÂ’s a little piece of trivia for all you readers: the layout of the keys on a typewriter (the QWERTY layout) is designed to SLOW DOWN the rate of typing. This was done because the arms in the old typewriters used to jam with a more efficient layout of the keys.
• First contact with aliens: ET hasnÂ’t showed up yet.
• Genetic engineering: a trip to has shown me how much we have advanced in this field which is one of the areas that I think we at least met the predictions if not exceeded them. I had a hard boiled egg that was about half the size of the eggs that we are used to in the US. The chickens there are not genetically enhanced and they do not eat genetically enhanced grain. The result: a chicken and an egg that are about half the size of their genetically enhanced counterparts. Same goes for all the produce that we eat. The world described by Aldous Huxley in “Brave new world” is within our reach, we simply havenÂ’t applied it to humans but we already have the tools and we have experimented for quite some time on animals and plants.
• Cloning: Dolly the sheep, ‘nuff said. Human cloning seems like something that is within our reach. To me it seems like our biggest problem is that we are not ethically advanced enough to wield such a powerful sword.
• Worldwide mobile phone / computer based communication: one of the very few areas of electronics/technology where the predictions came true. Cellular coverage is almost world wide and quite affordable. For those who are willing to spend some more and need complete coverage there are satellite phones that cover the entire planet. There is this thing called the internet – have you heard of it? It seems like no piece of information is beyond our reach these days – this is actually very close to the world described by many sci-fi writers. BTW communication satellites are the brainchild of the sci-fi writer Arthur C. Clarke.
• Fast travel across long distances: with the Concorde supersonic jet (which made it's maiden flight in the late 60's) removed from service all civilian mass transit systems are sub-sonic. Another miss for the dreamers.

By reviewing this list I came to a number of conclusions. First: we did better in the bio-engineering fields than we did in the technology and mechanical engineering fields. Medicine and biotechnology seem to have met the predictions in more predictions than I have expected. Second: in the electronics and engineering fields we have met very few of the goals.

It seems like many of the predictions came short of reality. The ones that did come true had very good reasons for why they materialized – in short, they create a financial benefit. So why didn’t the cars materialize? Certainly there is ample financial benefit to using other sources of energy other than oil, right? That is a topic for another time. Till then,


Thanks,


Gadi “PurpleDiamond” Veiner




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Thanks for the article info and the rundown man

Very nice write up PurpleDiamond

A nice read.

It is not hard to see that your thoughts go deeper than dumb blond jokes.

Seeing more of your writings wolud be enlightining I'm sure.

I want to thank IronSerif for the opportunity to write up something more than links to deals .
I would be glad to offer some blond jokes but I don't know any...

Remember that package you gave me? They misspelled your name. Instead of a V in your last name, it was a W

Sweeeet Write-up Gadi

Nice "writeup", PD! You've made some interesting points there.... I have to agree on the bio/genetics
"lead"... perhaps "StarTrek Voyager" & it's Bio-Based computers aren't far way!

TDR

Quote: Originally Posted by The Dragon Reborn Nice "writeup", PD! You've made some interesting points there.... I have to agree on the bio/genetics "lead"... perhaps "StarTrek Voyager" & it's Bio-Based computers aren't far way! TDR

Well PD, that was fantastic, I have to say that at least I am not the only one who feels disappointed. I truly expected great things from out new century but alas we are still greeted each day by the same drudge and boring dirt of the present I think that thing that sparks my interest the most is the sterility of the future everything is always clean and in its placeÂ…. I donÂ’t know about you butÂ… my house needs clean and I never have time to do itÂ…. Good read great points!

Hi everybody!

I just read the article and I think that something went wrong. When I sent it to IronSerif I did it via a PM and I think that the message may have been messed up. What Iron posted is only the secpnd page of the Daily Disturbance article.

I have re-sent it to hime via e-mail so stay tuned.

Hi Iron - if you are reading this the word count of the original piece should be over 1000 words, run a word count to make sure you got the whole thing.

Quote: Originally Posted by PurpleDiamond Hi everybody! I just read the article and I think that something went wrong. When I sent it to IronSerif I did it via a PM and I think that the message may have been messed up. What Iron posted is only the secpnd page of the Daily Disturbance article. I have re-sent it to hime via e-mail so stay tuned. Hi Iron - if you are reading this the word count of the original piece should be over 1000 words, run a word count to make sure you got the whole thing.

Totally my fault bro! I honestly don't know what happened...but it should be good to go now. My apologies to everyone.

If you've read the original posting, please re-read it as there was much that was left out which has been re-added!

Thanks again for the article Purple Diamond and great job