OK, though this would be a more interesting variant of the election topic:

Who do you think is going to win and why.

Not who you are voting for or who should win... who you'd put money in Vegas on.

If I was there, I'd put $1000 on Obama by a wide margin.

My reasons?

McCain's voting record = W. W's popularity is dismal. Easy job to tie the two together.
McCain is old and "released" hundreds of pages of medical records. Obama is young & healthy.
McCain is less than charismatic. Any head to head debate should be a landslide for Obama.
If any more dirt could have been found on Obama, Hillary would have used it.


FYI - the poll has more than two choices... but if you pick either 3 or 4, you have some 'splainin to do Lucy.

I think a great deal depends upon their VPs for some very simple reasons.

1. McCains age: If he dies in office, who will take over?
2. Let us all be realistic, who thinks that if Obama is elected there will NOT be an assassination attempt? And if it succeeds his VP will take over.

I see a strong Comparison between Kennedy and Obama. I vote Obama. If Edwards is his VP, hes a shoe'n.

Hey 4x0n... why do you think McCain will win?

For starters he's more middle ground on the political left-right scale. He's not as conservative as the conservatives. His wife races in drift races He's also very likely to gain a lot of votes from vets, especially Vietnam vets, due to his time as a POW over there and refusing to leave his men behind. His track record is vast compared to Obama who is still relatively new in the game of politics, this could swing both ways though. Plus, shameful to be able to say this but, Obama is black with a name which is muslim sounding, both can dissuade a lot of people.


But I'm going to say that this will be a close election.

McCain

Clinton supporters hate Obama and on some of the last exit polls some god awful number of Clinton supporters stated that they would vote McCain over Obama.

On Obama's behalf hes been somewhat straight on what his tax plan will be, and that alone I think will help McCain the most. Death Tax reinstatement, Capital Gains tax raise, Social Security tax raise, oh and the evers so popular tax the rich scheme, and lets not forget ending the Bush era tax breaks......basically your gonna be punished for building a nest egg instead of being praised in the form of a tax break.

I dont think Edwards can save him as his VP though, but I do think Gore could make a difference.

I'm hoping for a debate-night disaster that throws it to a clash between the Libertarians and the Socialists. Just for the sheer novelty value of seeing the candidates who don't feel the need to sanitize their thoughts for the sake of electability duke it out.

I can see it now:

Ralph Nader: "I made it! Somehow I got the FEC to recognize the legitimacy of this campaign... but that leaking propane tank over there doesn't look very safe... :boom:"

I think after Bush, you guys could do with someone like Obama (who unlike Bush, has objectives apart from invading harmless third world countries and letting his corporate buddies 'rebuild' them, making them record profits).

I think Obama could organize national health care (many will oppose but you'll thank it when you get cancer and can't foot the thousands of pounds a year in treatment) effetively and generally make things a lot better for people in the US. All the recent military action the US has been involved in has really made you guys loose sight of whats important at home, while Bush and his buddies have made a killing (in more ways than one) in the Middle East.

Its pretty obvious that America should be sorting out its domestic problems right now. It terms of child death rates (most notably in the black communities), people living below the poverty line, etc etc you are almost a third world country!

Instead of fighting wars, the American public should be asking why in Europe, in Germany for example, people on average enjoy a standard of living faaaar in excess of the average American. E.g. the average German factory worker earns TWICE the amount per week as his US counterpart.

Now, roll on UK elections when we can finally get rid of this New Labour bullcrap (Blairs run off and left his croney Brown behind, for those not in the know).

Obama + someone decent in 10 Downing Street = better for all of us.

I'm from Arizona where there is a disproportionate number of really old farts retired here. As well as being a traffic hazard by driving golf carts on the streets, these people get out and vote in much higher numbers than average working folks. Arizona also traditionally tends to vote straight Republican. Coupled with the fact the Democrats can't seem to provide a viable rival, McCain continues to hold office despite the fact he is not very popular here. His approval rating here has dropped 7 points since March and his disapproval rating has jumped by 12 points.

He has an abysmal attendance and voting record in congress. He's avoided every hot button issue vote that could cause him problems in a run to the White House. A fresh caught trout doesn't flip flop as often. He has been caught in more alzheimer moments and outright fabrications than Obama and Clinton combined. He's too freaking old. The global community perceives him in a very poor light.

And if he uses the word "transcendent" inappropriately one more time, I'm going to scream.

I think Dex makes a strong point for me to move to Germany if Obama loses. Sprechen sie Englisch?!?

If I were to put money down on the election I definately would wait till it was nearer. It's still five months or so away and anything could happen. That said i'd put my money on Obama. Everybody seems to be predicting another 2006 where the Republicans will once again be sunk by Bush's unpopularity. But then again I never count out the ability of the Democrats to screw up an election. I thought John Kerry would handily defeat George Bush in 2004 and look how that turned out.

I visit a lot of liberal websites and I've seen a lot of articles about how Obama is going to trounce McCain in the election. After 2004 I just can't share the same optimism. The polls definately show George Bush is among the most unpopular presidents in American history. But it would seem to me that though Americans have repudiated Bush they haven't so much repudiated the principles and ideology he stands for. The Republicans will probably lose this election but I wouldn't say they've shifted to the left. So I still think Obama will win but I think it will be far closer than anyone is expecting. Of course that's all conjecture. I can't prove it. But I feel better about this election now that the Democrats have a nominee who wasn't tragically born without a personality.

Lets not forget though, Bush != The Republican Party.

Quote: Originally Posted by Dex I think after Bush, you guys could do with someone like Obama (who unlike Bush, has objectives apart from invading harmless third world countries and letting his corporate buddies 'rebuild' them, making them record profits). I think Obama could organize national health care (many will oppose but you'll thank it when you get cancer and can't foot the thousands of pounds a year in treatment) effetively and generally make things a lot better for people in the US. All the recent military action the US has been involved in has really made you guys loose sight of whats important at home, while Bush and his buddies have made a killing (in more ways than one) in the Middle East. Its pretty obvious that America should be sorting out its domestic problems right now. It terms of child death rates (most notably in the black communities), people living below the poverty line, etc etc you are almost a third world country! Instead of fighting wars, the American public should be asking why in Europe, in Germany for example, people on average enjoy a standard of living faaaar in excess of the average American. E.g. the average German factory worker earns TWICE the amount per week as his US counterpart. Now, roll on UK elections when we can finally get rid of this New Labour bullcrap (Blairs run off and left his croney Brown behind, for those not in the know). Obama + someone decent in 10 Downing Street = better for all of us.

Hhahaha Howd I know this thread wouldnt escape the Bush patronization. Typical. Harmless third world country? hahaha

I'm going to go with the reason I see.

Oboma - Young, better looking than Mccain, as stated before of a different composure than the average US pres.

Mccain - Old horrid looking, but a vet, POW, and he's just the same old pres.

I have a strange feeling that Mccain will win it, But with record setting numbers of votes, and an awful close previous two elections, I don't feel this election can even dare be a landslide.

Lets put it this way. There's a lot of red states out there still, including them big ones. Hilary lost and I bet New york will go to the red this time around. Like sparky said, so many people wanted hillary, It's just that they wanted the alternative to Obama, So I have a feeling, that a feeling is going to decide the pres, not actual thought.

Quote: Originally Posted by Sparky Hhahaha Howd I know this thread wouldnt escape the Bush patronization. Typical. Harmless third world country? hahaha

Your right, in a thread about choosing your next president, why on earth would anyone discuss/comment on Bush?! Its madness isn't it!

I wasn't 'patronizing' him (for a definition of that word, see here. That was patronizing ), I simply stated a widely accepted fact. He did nothing for the average American.

Getting back on topic, I echo many existing sentiments. While Obama is probably the best choice, I doubt he'll get in. McCain is too 'safe' and 'normal' for people to resist.

Quote: Originally Posted by Dex While Obama is probably the best choice, I doubt he'll get in. McCain is too 'safe' and 'normal' for people to resist.

That shouldve been your post.

Stating that its a widely accepted fact that GW did nothing for my country is just more ignorant babbling. But in all honesty I dont wanna argue this again with you Dex, its become painfully obvious to me that your not gonna give an inch and Im not either. Lets just continue on this thread in its original topic and agree that your a moron and I might be too.

And Lokie is going to write in someone?

Quote: Originally Posted by Sparky Lets just continue on this thread in its original topic and agree that your a moron and I might be too.

Agreed, thinking that Dubya had anything other than fear mongering and money making on his agenda is certainly moronic.

Quote: Originally Posted by Dex Agreed, thinking that Dubya had anything other than fear mongering and money making on his agenda is certainly moronic.

Honestly please please quit. Your over your own head on a topic you have no clue about that we obviously disagree on. Let the thread return to what its meant for, and not your own way of pickin a fight with multiple members of this board. Weve been down this road, lets just agree to disagree and let the thread return to its original subject. Thanks.

Sorry for the hijack Gumby.

Meh... no worries.

We haven't had a good fight in a while... and what better to fight about than politics?

So, how about McCain's lobbyist/advisor telling the press that another 9/11 would help McCain?