Just wondering what kind of gas price increases our non-US forum members are seeing...

Quote: 'Squawk Box' Guest Warns of $12-15-a-Gallon Gas Robert Hirsch, an energy advisor, says CNBC morning show prediction was a citation of the 'Dean of Oil Analysts.' By Jeff Poor Business & Media Institute 5/21/2008 3:38:13 PM It may be the mother of all doom and gloom gas price predictions: $12 for a gallon of gas is “inevitable.” Robert Hirsch, Management Information Services Senior Energy Advisor, gave a dire warning about the potential future of gas prices on CNBC’s May 20 “Squawk Box”. He told host Becky Quick there was no single thing that would solve the problem, due to the enormity of the problem. “[T]he prices that we’re paying at the pump today are, I think, going to be ‘the good old days,’ because others who watch this very closely forecast that we’re going to be hitting $12 and $15 per gallon,” Hirsch said. “And then, after that, when oil – world oil production goes into decline, we’re going to talk about rationing. In other words, not only are we going to be paying high prices and have considerable economic problems, but in addition to that, we’re not going to be able to get the fuel when we want it.” Hirsch told the Business & Media Institute the $12-$15 a gallon wasn’t his prediction, but that he was citing Charles T. Maxwell, described as the “Dean of Oil Analysts” and the senior energy analyst at Weeden & Co. Still, Hirsch admitted the high price was inevitable in his view. “I don’t attempt to predict oil prices because it’s been impossible in the past,” Hirsch said in an e-mail. “We’re into a new era now, and over the next roughly five years the trend will be up significantly. However, there may be dips and bumps that no one can forecast; I wouldn’t be at all surprised. To me the multi-year upswing is inevitable.” Maxwell’s original $12-15-a-gallon prediction came in a February 5 interview with Energytechstocks.com, a Web site run by two former Wall Street Journal staffers. “[Maxwell] expects an oil-induced financial crisis to start somewhere in the 2010 to 2015 timeframe,” Energytechstocks.com reported. “He said that, unlike the recession the U.S. appears to be in today, ‘This will not be six months of hell and then we come out of it.’ Rather, Maxwell expects this financial crisis to last at least 10 or 12 years, as the world goes through a prolonged period of price-induced rationing (eg, oil up to $300 a barrel and U.S. pump prices up to $15 a gallon).” According to associate of Maxwell at Weeden & Co., Maxwell is out of the country and currently unavailable for comment. Maxwell’s biography on the Weeden & Co. Web site said he “has been ranked by the U.S. financial institutions as the No. 1 oil analyst for the years 1972, 1974, 1977 and 1981-1986,” according to polls taken by Institutional Investor magazine. “In addition, for the last 17 years he has been an active member of an Oxford-based organization comprised of OPEC and other industry executives from 30 countries who meet twice a year to discuss trends within the energy industry.” Although Maxwell’s prediction is for the long-term, not everyone supports high-end predictions, even in the short-term. CNBC contributor and the vice president of risk management for MF Global (NYSE:MF) John Kilduff said on “The Call” May 7that he expected gas prices to drop following the Chinese Olympics, as China’s economic boom slows down.

Yup, and then we decend into the war that will probably end of all humanity, the war for the worlds last oil reservers (as per Frontlines: Fuel Of War)

Sobering stuff....

Over here 95 octane goes for just over NZ$2 per litre (~ US$1.50)
Diesel's crept up to $1.60ish too (US$1.23)

It's a bad time to drive a gas-guzzler

The problem is that we've had an individualistic mindset towards transportation for too long. You get to decide when and where you go, and in the process, screw efficiency. Even if we dropped an EV1 in every driveway tomorrow, it's still wildly inefficient to have a 1:1.5 vehicle-rider ratio (instead of wasting petrol, we waste electricity instead).

What's terrible is how badly it's baked into our society-- notably, city planning and people's desires are still about "I want an acre, even though all I'll do is bitch about my commute and the amount of time I spend on lawncare!"

People need to start saying "I want to live in an urban 20-story housing block because a 500-metre commute to work is a compelling feature of its own."

I recently saw an article about research that would recycle the co2 in the atmosphere, and turn it back into "normal" gasoline, however it would cost X billion dollars, and by the time it would be done, and factory up, it would only return gas to 4$.

I'll try to find the article.

Buy a motorcycle. Even the large displacement motorcycles are getting 40 mpg. The smaller ones, and scooters are closing in on 60mpg ratings. Just think of how much safer it will become for those that do ride when 10 or 15% more people ride motorcycle and are aware of them on the road.

As for the cost of fuel, the oil companies are gonna continue to raise their prices as long as people keep buying fuel. They are never going to abandon record profits just because the little guy has a hurt wallet. Greed is to deeply rooted in oil executives.

It will never get to 12 or 15 a gallon. The whole world would come to a screeching halt, no one could afford to do business anymore, war would probably break out over fuel reserves, there would be rioting most likely because no one could afford fuel for their cars to go to work anymore. Civilization would be on the brink of self-extermination.

This is just another way for the government to squeeze every last dime from the middle class. We do all the work, pay all of the taxes while they sit back and reel in the cash. They raise fuel prices, which in turn causes everything else to go up. Pretty soon there will be no middle class, just the dirt poor or house poor and the filthy rich.

IMHO this is scare-tactics, no way in hell will gas get that high, if gas got to 15 dollars a gallon, my car would cost 232 dollars to fill up, which works out yearly assuming I fill up twice a month at my current rate of consumption, about 5500 dollars a year on fuel, so let's round that up to 6000 for car meets and things of that nature.

6000 dollars is roughly 25% of my adjusted gross income a year, that's nothing to sneeze at, considering now I spend roughly 1500 to 1800 dollars yearly on fuel, at this rate of consumption, which works out to be less than 5% of my AGI.

That's a 5-fold increase in fuel cost for me. Now imagine this:

My workvan has a 33 gallon cell, x 15.00 a gallon = 495 to fill.

I have to fill it 4 times a month because I drive it everywhere to fix cable, so a that rate of consumption, it works out to 23,760 dollars a year for fuel costs.

That's 95% of my AGI, and thank God I don't pay for it, but the independent contractor who does won't be able to afford to do business, even my company won't be able to afford to do business because we have 100's of those trucks and we would go bankrupt trying to spend 24,000 a year in fuel x 100's of trucks, and mine is a fuel-efficient V6, most guys have V8's and the bucket trucks are 7-litre V10's.

It's simple mathematics and economics, gas will never get that high, no one could afford the cost of living except the wealthy.

And you know what, if you want it to go down, go get yourself one of these and ride it to work, which BTW I just converted mine to 3-speed.

Quote: Originally Posted by vf1000ride Buy a motorcycle. Even the large displacement motorcycles are getting 40 mpg. The smaller ones, and scooters are closing in on 60mpg ratings. Just think of how much safer it will become for those that do ride when 10 or 15% more people ride motorcycle and are aware of them on the road.

In the process of doing that now.

The government and even the oil companies have little to do with the increase in prices. Well, other than Bush continuing to buy overpriced crude to fill the oil reserves and oil companies who flat refuse to invest in new refineries.

What's driving it right now is two things. One ...China is now driving and they are just getting started. And two ...oil investors. Just like in the housing market before the bust, speculators are buying up oil reserves as fast as they can get their greedy little hands on them and driving price increases. Speculators buy roughly as much crude as China. Nothing short of a world wide recession will effect price increases. Supply and demand.

12 dollars a gallon is a 300 percent increase from current. 4 dollars is a 1300 percent increase from when I was a kid.

The upside is governments and the general populace will finally start to address viable renewable resources. And people will rethink their auto choices. I'd say close to half the cars I see on the road are SUV's, crossovers and trucks driven by one person who might actually use the extra room and power 2 percent of the time. Most of these vehicles will never haul a load of 2x4's and never ride on dirt. In a large part, we can blame ourselves.

Quote: Originally Posted by Hak Foo The problem is that we've had an individualistic mindset towards transportation for too long. You get to decide when and where you go, and in the process, screw efficiency. Even if we dropped an EV1 in every driveway tomorrow, it's still wildly inefficient to have a 1:1.5 vehicle-rider ratio (instead of wasting petrol, we waste electricity instead). What's terrible is how badly it's baked into our society-- notably, city planning and people's desires are still about "I want an acre, even though all I'll do is bitch about my commute and the amount of time I spend on lawncare!" People need to start saying "I want to live in an urban 20-story housing block because a 500-metre commute to work is a compelling feature of its own."

I live on Long Island. You simply can not survive here without a car. It is not a question of not wanting to take public transportation, or not wanting to carpool and do other things. It is a simple fact that in most cases you can not get from here to there. For example, if I worked in NYC I could walk a half mile to the nearest bus stop, take two busses to the LIRR train station and then take the train into NYC. It would take me about 45 minutes just to get to the LIRR station and then another hour into NYC and then however long it takes to get from Penn Station to work (my last job it was 30 min). Of course, I could ride a bike the 6 miles to the train station, but what happens when it rains or snows? Or when it is really hot and I get all sweaty in my suit? There are no showers at work.

Another example, I work on Long Island, say about 20 miles away in Hauppauge. There is no train to take me there. Nor is their a way to do it by bus that I know of since I live in Nassau County and Happauge is in Suffolk County and the two bus companies don't coordinate their routes/schedules.

Of course, when you toss two kids into the equation, that makes it even harder to try to use public transportation. So now only do we have some of the highest cost of living in the country due to the stupid amount of property taxes we pay, but we are enslaved to our cars and now getting screwed that way. With no alternatives.

I know for me , when the gas prices started going up , I took both my Suburban's to Hollister and parked them in my friends barn and they both still sit there. ( he goes out and starts them once a weeks or so ) I then went out and bought two beater cars, a 90 olds lil' 4 door and a 92 toyota. I wont be driveing a big truck again any time soon if ever again as a daily driver just because even at $4 a gallon , filling a 40gl tank is INSANE!!!

I dont know the economics involved in the price hike , but i can tell you this, If you drive arount town here where the car lots are you will see loads of big SUV's and trucks on all the used car lots, and I think its a good thing. If you dont need a big ass SUV then dont drive one ....................leave that to us REDNECKS STOP HOGGING OUR GAS!!!

As further proof the end times are upon us ...

I can't fill up my minivan. The pumps at Chevron cut off at $75 to limit losses to drive-offs. Gas is $4. My minivan has a 25 gallon tank. The math is left as an exercise for the student.

-MF

hmm my truck get's about 8-80 miles for a gallon of diesel.
Diesel on WVO (Waste Vegetable Oil) only have to pay for the diesel used to start it and shut it off.

Quote: Originally Posted by musclecars&computers hmm my truck get's about 8-80 miles for a gallon of diesel. Diesel on WVO (Waste Vegetable Oil) only have to pay for the diesel used to start it and shut it off.

We have a guy that comes to the car meets with one of those setups on his Chevy 1500 half-ton diesel, I have the sudden craving for McDonald's french fries whenever he leaves.

It's the fault of investors, not a shortage of oil. When the stock market starts to get shaky investors start putting their money into futures. Basically, they are betting on sure things like wheat, corn, soy, meat, and of course oil. What they bet on is how much it will be in demand which increases that commodity's price, which fuels more futures purchases, which drives up the price, which fuels more futures purchases, which drives up the price, which fuels more futures purchases, etc...

There isn't a shortage of oil. What we may have in America is a shortage of refinery's to turn the oil into gas. Do you realize how long it has been since a new refinery has been built? Over 30 years. When the oil companies talk about a lack of supply, it's not about the oil, it's actually their own ability to refine oil into gas. If they invested the billions of dollars they receive in tax breaks into refineries instead of PR on how they invest that money into new sources of energy, the investors wouldn't look so favorably at oil as a sure thing on the futures market and artificially drive up the price.

I have a feeling that Big Oil is going to go the way of the housing market, right now it's in an economic boom, the price is rising yet people are still buying the stuff. Eventually when the investors come back down to Reality and see that the average American can't buy gasoline anymore because it's either get to work or put food on the table, the price will drop like a rock.

It's dog eat dog now, Wall St. and the government are not in touch with reality right now and are in the own little bubble, separate from the rest of the world, oblivious to their surroundings.

BTW Diesel just broke the $5 mark here.

its funny the big oil companies right now are telling congress that the reason gas prices are going up is supply and demand. I as well as others across the country have done research into the demand of gas over the last few years...


in the past few months demand for gas has gone down 7%.. but the price of gas has went up 14%... that doesnt sound like supply and demand. However as an economist stand point this is actually a good thing. someone said there isnt a gas shortage... this is partially true.. I do agree we dont have enough refineries however 2 years ago we did reach our half way point. 2 years ago half of the worlds supply has been used.. the rest of the gas is harder to get to. because of this you have to greatly raise price to lower demand.

lowering demand while raising the price is the only way to counter-act the supply and demand curve. It is unfourtunate that we have to pay while the oil companies are making profit but quite frankly its the only way the supply and demand curve of oil is going to be corrected. What should be done is the price should go up, but instead of making profits they should re-invest that money into different energy efficient energy/transportation methods.

But as our society goes, the only way demand will go down is if price goes up quickly. It should be interesting to see how things turn out.

From my field of work, (Manufacture cultured marble) china has tremendously picked up the oil usage. Manufacturing of solid surface, cultured marble and stone in china has increased 10 fold over the past 10 years. Even though the oil prices are going up China can still manufacture, ship over seas, and distribute cheaper than we can in the states?! I can honestly say that the quality is not there and you get what you pay for, but if that were to change allot more industries will be hit here at home.

My only saving grace for my marble shop is the fact we do exclusive custom orders with quality. We haven't been this busy in years. With the surrounding shops folding do to poor quality issues, we have built a strong base to hold onto. I have been going over all my procedures to save any and all waste raw materials, just for the fact every penny counts! Even though I can still find ways to save money, the resin prices are still climbing right along with the oil. I fear the my trade days are numbered.

Diesel is up to 1.30 GBP per litre (2.58 USD) here - I make that 9.77 USD for a US gallon. Unleaded is a mere 1.15 GBP/L, or 8.63 USD/USgall in comparision