I don't see the surface getting enough market penetration for it to matter. Thanks to its top-down style, the surface seems more like a piece of furniture than a computer or game console would be
While RTSes in particularly would probably work great with a surface (issuing two commands at once would be so great)
I can see a gaming future for it in a club situation, but the games wouldn't be quite as engrossing. I'm thinking along the lines of
Pac-Man ****tail-style machines